I know that this topic may be a little off topic but since it does effect us
and is relevant for those that model a narrow focus road like the CB&Q....
Jan Kohl wrote:
> Just wanted to get on a soapbox for a little bit and maybe start an
> intelligent discussion concerning this topic...the state of model
> railroading today. This is not intended to be an inflammatory post, or
> to disrespect those in the industry who are laboring to try to build
> better things for the model railroad public.
>
> Intermountain just stated the other day they will be going to 'order
> only' in the future. This is where quite a few other model railroad
> companies are going and have done for many different releases.
> Unfortunately, it leaves the public somewhat at a loss...if you don't
> have the cash up front when they take orders, you may not get one (or at
> a greatly increased cost due to demand). I have found myself victim of
> this recently, when orders for the Con-Cor Zephyr were going in, I
> wasn't sure at the time I had the extra cash to put down on one. Now
> that I do, I don't have one...all the orders have shipped. I could
> probably get one on eBay sooner or later, but I'm sure it will go for a
> lot more that what I could have ordered one for through one of my
contacts.
The alternative is to go back to the days when Athearn and Model Die Casting
were the only players. They also built to order (i.e., didn't have
two-three years worth of stock on their shelves) because no item in Model
Railroading is in continuous production...except maybe flextrack. All you
could get was those two brands and they did not change their offerings
between production runs.... they kept rerrunning the same car paint jobs and
numbers, so it SEEMED like you could aways get product.... but it was,
compared to today, an extremely limited selection.
> Here's the problems that the industry has currently.
> 1) Decreased demand - It's a known fact that kids rarely get model
> trains anymore. And many people are doing other hobbies other than
> model railroading...some probably partially due to train simulators on
> computer. So the industry is faced with less people wanting their
> products than it used to be.
"Kids" were never a factor in Scale Model Railroading. Tinplate, while over
manufactured at the moment, may have similar sales volume as compared to the
days of glory when Lionel and American Flyer were toys that all kids had.
Scale Model Railroading is in better condition today than it ever has been.
Sure, you talk to one manufacturer and they will complain, but it is because
there are so many manufacturers turning out quality merchandise.... the
total volume of sales is as high as it ever has been.
> 2) Increased cost - research and dev for a realistic model can take many
> hours. Many people demand more now than the Athearn 'blue box' kit.
> All of this costs money, and then you have to figure in royalties to the
> RR companies for logo use as well. I don't have any figures to hand,
> but I wouldn't doubt that it probably can cost $10,000 just to get a
> single realistic plastic model on the tracks. This figure is just a
> shot in the dark, but thinking of all the hours taken to research, get
> photos, talk to people, pay for royalties, get the mold and then set up
> the production line I'm thinking that it's probably not TOO far off.
> Maybe someone can correct me if they know.
Costs are the same as they always have been but quality and features are
vastly improved. Your $6.98 Athearn rubber band drive F7 would cost around
$75 in today's money.... which is about what you pay for a gear-drive
Athearn Ready-to-Roll F7A/B unit combo with window glazing, superior motor,
improved traction, and accurate graphics. Model Railroading is a bargin
today.
> 3) Overstock - the industry has found that letting kits sit in
> warehouses does not make money. So it's better for them to pay up front,
> produce only those needed, and then get paid for every single one that
> they roll off the production line.
The same is true for every segment of the retail world.
> However, all of these problems for the industries creates problems for
> customers...
The only problems are caused by the customer themselves. There is plenty of
information available about upcoming products. The advent of the internet,
mail order, and eBay allow you to seek out and find just about anything you
want. No, you can't aways get it from a particular supplier at the price
and when you want it, but you can get just about anything. And if you
can't get a particular item, the flood of products coming out allows you to
spend your money on a comparable product.
> 1) Understocked - obviously, if less are produced and you don't get in
> on the front end of an order, you're not going to get one or get it at
> an increased cost.
Very few items are sold at premium prices...... some command full retail,
but that is the price that the manufacturer intended the item to be sold at.
Deep discounters who are not making a living at selling trains, just
subsidizing their own hobby, make us lose sight of the fact that Model
Railroading is a business and that the retail prices are set so distributors
and stores can perform their roles in the distribution chain. Forcing them
out of the picture by expecting deep discounts only increases the problem of
no supply.... the pipeline is tied more and more directly to the
manufacturer and with no product sitting on distributors and dealers
shelves.
> 2) Loss of the 'simple' kit - I know that if I had to pay $30 for every
> piece of rolling stock that I own, I'd have been in debt (and probably
> divorced) a long time ago. Many items I have I've got from kits and
> modified them to look more like the original, or just built them to run
> and modify later (if I get around to it). I've got a nice amount of
> rolling stock right now...but I'd say my *avg* price for ALL the items I
> own is probably around $8 per unit. It doesn't cost me anything to
> kitbash....just my time.
There is a demand for better detail on cars. While I agree that not every
car has to have etched metal roofwalks and operating brake wheels, there is
market pressure for these features. Atlas is trying their "Trainman" line
to see if accurately proportioned, less complicated cars have a market. I
think they do as many people are "operators" and cars with fine add-on
details don't hold up in service. Time will tell.
As far as kits, the incremental cost of assemblying a car vs. packaging
parts does not justify this shrinking market. A kit as simple as an
Athearn car is not enough of a challenge to justify spending the time on
assemblying it..... people are trading money for time and reserving their
kit-building time for special kits or, actually building their layouts.
There was never any nobility associated with completing an Athearn kit and
the extra money for an assembled car is not a big issue. I for one would
never buy an Intermountain or similar kit if it was available in a competent
completed format.... trying to get all those delicate parts off the sprues
without breaking them is not fun. Ditto for the Walthers car
details....which they have recognized and are now doing in China.
> 3) Higher cost - there are a ton of good models coming out now, but as
> mentioned before, you have to be ready with the cash when the orders are
> announced until the orders close. There have been weeks where I could
> easily see myself spending $1000 or more per week because of the
> announcement of a bunch of great items. While I get paid pretty well at
> my job, there is no way I could justify that sort of expenditure on my
> hobby...too many real-life things to buy. But if you look later, you
> may be too late.
Everyone has their own priorities. Today people pay more per gallon for
bottled water than the gas prices they complain about, pay monthly charges
for various cable TV services, cellphones, pay ATM charges, buy cigarettes,
restaurant food, the latest electronic gizzmos, sports team tickets, and a
host of other descretionary expenditures. All of which have increased in
price more than Model Railroad Equipment.
> I don't really know what the answer is...but I just can't see what we
> have now as being the right answer. Maybe others have some
comments/ideas?
We are living in the Golden Age of Model Railroading. Having too many and
too much good stuff to choose from may be a problem, but it is better than
the alternative. If you have to railroad on a strict budget and can't
expand it by cutting back on other areas, now is one of the best times to be
in the Hobby. There is a great deal of trading up going on with relatively
new, good units coming on the used market from people who are trading up to
the latest and greatest. The glass ain't half full....it overfloweth!!!
Charlie Vlk
Railroad Model Resources
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