Jan Kohl wrote:
> Just wanted to get on a soapbox for a little bit and maybe start an
> intelligent discussion concerning this topic...the state of model
> railroading today. This is not intended to be an inflammatory post, or
> to disrespect those in the industry who are laboring to try to build
> better things for the model railroad public.
>
Jan,
This is off topic for the list, but maybe Dave and John will indulge us
a little and add their perspectives.
There are several people in this group who work in the "industry", so I
am sure they will reply if they care to. I do a web page for a hobby
shop whose whole business is model railroading, so I have a good idea of
the retail end.
Model manufacturers are just adopting the same frame of mind that goes
on in other industries today. Produce a product, get your return, and
hold no inventory. That way your costs are fixed. Having inventory on
the shelf costs money. The reality these days is that a new item will
sell 80-90% of what it will sell in the first 30-45 days after it's been
released. After that, it sits on the shelf as a fixed cost and capital
that can not be put into new items. Kato pioneered this idea in model
railroading in the 90's and the other manufacturers have just found that
it is a good way to get the most of their production dollar. And it
costs a bunch more than $10,000 to do the die work and research to get a
plastic model on the market. It's at least five times that for a freight
car and 10 times that for a locomotive.
The dealer I do the web page for has stacks of previous run Proto 2000,
Atlas, and Athearn locomotives sitting on his shelves. Even through he
discounts, they are still there. The financial lesson he learned from
this is now he only orders what his customers tell him they want in
advance and maybe one or two extra. And can you really blame him based
on past experience? Now he's more lenient on freight cars because they
actually sell faster because they are less expensive and are less
capital intensive to sit on the shelf. However, retailers and model
manufacturers are not making tons of money doing this. It's as much a
labor of love as anything as there are lots of places to make a better
return on your investment.
As for the price of cars, I too remember buying an Athearn blue box box
car kit 30 years ago for $1.98. But with inflation and the change in
wages (minimum wage for me then was $1.60 an hour), the current price of
the Athearn kits is about the same. And for just a little bit more, we
have kits that are much more detailed than we could ever dream of 30
years ago. The new Athearn cement trucks are $20 a piece, and my dealer
talks about all the people complaining about how expensive they are.
However, Athearn is having no problem selling them and they are already
sold out on their third run.
Time is tight for a lot of people and they are trading money for time.
That is why both the manufacturers and dealers are selling more ready to
run items all the time. I put together two car kits last week along with
a Campbell structure. People like me are becoming rarer in the hobby
because they don't have (or choose not to spend) the hours to do that.
Whether people realize it or not, the model railroading hobby is in a
golden age. We have extremely detailed products available. We have
products available in limited run quantities than even 5 years ago no
one would ever think be done in plastic (like the Pioneer Zephyr). The
trade-off for this investment and product stream is limited run products
so that the people producing these products can recover their costs,
make a little profit, and hopefully produce more product.
Bill
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