Well... isn't THIS a fine kettle of worms!
You start playing with numbers, and the odds really start whopping
you upside the head.
There are 279,936 possible combinations of consists - with just the
original cars. There are a possibility of 21,900 unique consists
(playing a little loose with the date, and using a 30 year figure)
over the years. Which means that, through the life of the CZ, using
just the original cars, the unique consists would have been 1 tenth
the number of possible consists (it would have had to run over 300
years to exercises all unique consists, assuming that each consist
was unique). Of course, there is a goodly number of non-unique
consists, so that figure gets blown away. Of those consists, I have
about 1/1000. to verify against. The odds of fitting something in
that hole is not good!
Which basically means, if you select 1 from column A (baggage cars) 3
from column B (dome coaches), 1 from column C (dome lounges),
etc. with no knowledge of any "real" consist, you have less than a 1
in 10 chance of possibly getting it "right". And, if you do post '52
ALL of this goes right out the window, thanks to the Q's equipment
use and the influx of the second order (not to mention the foreign cars).
I think the idea of selling the name plates is looking better and better...
Bob Webber
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